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Purpose of the Consultancy
The purpose of this consultancy is to provide technical support to the WHO ACE office in the Western Pacific Region in identifying health risks associated with climate change, considering factors such as extreme weather events, changing vector habitats, and alterations in disease transmission patterns and prepare a technical report on priority CSH outcomes for the WHO WPR and pilot possible risk models to forecast potential disease outbreaks under different climate scenarios.
This consultancy will serve to inform a Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Implementation Plan of climate-health activities in the Western Pacific Region. The M&E plan will track the interplay between climate and health and assess the effectiveness of interventions in the Western Pacific Region as recommended by the Technical Advisory Group on Climate Change, the Environment and Health (CCE TAG) under Pillar 3: Monitoring the impact of climate change and the environment (hereafter noted as CCE) on health; to provide timely, accurate and strategic information to inform decision-making, guide advocacy, drive action, and track impacts and success of interventions.
The specific objectives are:
1. A desk-based review of evidence focusing on comparative risk assessment of the burden of disease from climate change in WPR.
2. Identifying climate sensitive health outcomes (CSH), their pathways (e.g. foodborne diseases) and their outcome measures (e.g. diarrhoea episodes) most relevant to WPR with relevant data sources.
3. Develop and pilot risk models to assess baseline and to forecast potential disease outbreaks under different climate scenarios and provide estimates that can serve as a basis to guide the development of a WPR monitoring and evaluation plan.
Background
The World Health Organization has estimated that between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250 000 additional deaths per year from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea, and heat stress alone. The direct damage costs to health are estimated to be between US$ 2–4 billion per year by 2030. Areas with weak health infrastructure – mostly in developing countries – will be the least able to cope without assistance to prepare and respond.
In strategic preparation for WHO’s 14th General Programme of Work 2025-2028 (GPW14), there is a need to accelerate action at global, regional, national, and local levels to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Transformative action on climate change, environment and health will be one of the 6 priorities and work at the global scale is underway to design and agree on CCE monitoring indicators. The impacts of climate change on health includes premature mortality and a wide range of diseases triggered by extreme weather events, population displacement, changes in weather patterns (e.g. rainfall and temperature) and environmental determinants.
The response to climate change is occurring at different levels (national, sub-national, local), intensity and effectiveness across the health sector and health-determining sectors in different countries. The ability for Member States (MS) to monitor and evaluate climate-health activities will be central to securing health and wellbeing in the Western Pacific. There is an urgent need to improve estimates of the effects of climate change on health on a global and regional scale that can clarify causal mechanisms linking climate with health impacts on a global and local scale.
The purpose of this consultancy is to provide technical support to quantify and identify priority health risks associated with CCE, considering factors such as an increase in extreme weather events, changing vector habitats, and alterations in disease transmission patterns and to prepare a technical report on priority CSH outcomes for the WPR and possible risk models to forecast potential disease outbreaks under different climate scenarios.
Expected duration of contract: 6 months
Work to be performed
Method(s) to carry out the activity:
· Undertake desk review to identify climate sensitive health outcomes in WPR and extracting studies applying comparative risk assessment to estimate burden of disease.
· Identifying possible CCE-related dose-response relationships used in different baseline climate periods.
· Review existing national and international databases for epidemiological data and climate data used across different exposure pathways to estimate burden of disease
· Define future context-specific exposure scenarios to predict burden of death and disease attributable to CCE.
· Develop and pilot risk models to assess burden of disease using R Studio
· Produce a technical report summarizing all findings
· Participate in planning meetings for to preparing the guidance for M&E implementation plan for climate-health activities in WPR.
Outputs/Deliverables:
Output 1: Conduct a desk review and develop a short report on the application of comparative risk assessment to estimate the burden of disease from climate change in WPR and develop a short report summarizing the findings (30 days).
Deliverable 1.1: Conduct a desk review on the application of comparative risk assessment to estimate the burden of disease from climate change in WPR including, but not limited to:
a. Health impact assessments of climate-related environmental pathways in WPR.
b. Relevant time-series studies and epidemiological risk assessments providing evidence on a range of health impacts sensitive to variations in meteorological conditions relevant to the region.
Deliverable 1.2: Complete a short report on the findings of the review that summarizes the key areas of need in terms of comparative risk assessment of burden of disease, as well as the priority CSH for WPR.
Output 2: Identify data sources for epidemiological data and for climate data to enable correlations between climate change variables and disease trends in WPR (15 days).
Deliverable 2.1: One Excel workbook summarizing national and international (if available; also include sub-national) data sources for health and climate data that can be used to estimate the impacts of climate change on diseases and CSH outcomes in the western Pacific Region
Output 3: Develop and pilot quantitative health impact assessment risk models to forecast potential disease outbreaks under different context-specific climate scenarios or climate policies (45 days).
Deliverable 3.1: One R Studio script for comparative risk assessment modelling of scenarios or policies using different climate-health exposure pathways and health outcomes.
Output 4: Write a technical report on the current state of affairs regarding the burden of disease from climate change in WPR, including a review of CRAs, data sources, DRFs and risk models applicable to WPR (30 days).
Deliverable 4.1. One technical report summarizing the findings from output 1, output 2 and output 3 that will enable clarification of the methodology, scope and outcome of a comparative risk assessment of burden of disease from climate change in WPR.
Qualifications, Experience, Skills and Knowledge, and Languages
Education Qualification:
Essential: Advanced degree (Ph.D or equivalent) in environmental epidemiology or environmental health and/or epidemiology
Desirable: Technical training in comparative health risk modelling in environmental health
Experience:
Essential: At least seven years’ experience in health risk modelling or technical assistance related to climate change and environmental health
Desirable: Experience of working in developing country context, knowledge of WHO policy and programmes and of the UN and its specialized agencies.
Skills / Technical skills and knowledge:
a. General knowledge of principles, practices and techniques in environmental health and specific knowledge of principles, practices and techniques in climate change, environment, and health
b. Ability to research, classify, analyse, and sift large amounts of information in a short time to report on what is relevant, necessary and pertinent.
c. Demonstrated experience and ability to provide coherent and advocate policy options based on evidence.
d. Working knowledge of essential WHO systems, procedures, policies, and structure and willingness to learn and adopt these quickly.
e. Excellent communication skills with the ability to work well with, and positively relate to, people at all levels and from all backgrounds and orientations.
f. Ability to work independently, and to take initiative quickly.
g. Ability to maintain the standard of conduct of an international civil servant and to work harmoniously as a member of an international team, adapt to diverse educational and cultural backgrounds and maintain a high standard of personal conduct.
h. Demonstrated working experience with academics, research centres, national technical institutions and other UN and development partners in building operational research capabilities.
Language:
Essential: Expert knowledge in English (reading, writing, and speaking).
Place of assignment
Remote work (for desk review, report writing)
Work from office in Seoul, Republic of Korea (for developing and piloting risk models)
Travel
The consultant is expected to travel
Additional Information
This vacancy notice may be used to identify candidates for other similar consultancies at the same level.
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