Scientist - Advanced verification of data-driven forecasts in Destination Earth

Your role 

ECMWF has a new opportunity for a highly motivated Scientist (A2) to support AI-based forecast verification in the framework of Destination Earth (DestinE).

At ECMWF, you will find a passionate community, collectively aiming to build world-leading global Earth system models for numerical weather prediction. ECMWF was the first operational weather centre to publish results of their own global machine learned weather model – the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) – that are continuously updated with the latest predictions on their webpage. Within DestinE, ECMWF now develops and deploys workflows of machine-learned Earth-system components of a European foundation model based on existing DestinE traditional simulation and modelling results. One target will be in-depth evaluation and regular performance monitoring of AI-based models.

In the framework of ECMWF’s contribution to the Destination Earth initiative of the European Commission, you will enhance capabilities in verification of AI-based predictions, focusing on surface weather and impact-related parameters (extreme temperature, strong wind, heavy precipitation). You will conduct in-depth evaluation as well as regular performance monitoring of AI-based Earth System forecasts, including forecasts performed with AIFS, which will be applied for supporting uncertainty quantification in DestinE. This includes applying, and also adapting verification metrics, especially those developed as part of DestinE, ensuring alignment in terms of methods and software with the overall ECMWF standards. You will help ensure forecasting products from AI models are fit-for-purpose, especially for predictions of high (societal) impact weather events.

You will work in collaboration with a wide range of colleagues across ECMWF, including scientists involved in verification and monitoring of ECMWF operational forecasting suites, scientists working on Digital Twins and ML developments and experts focused on the ECMWF AIFS. Externally you will work with ECMWF’s DestinE partners, ESA and EUMETSAT, service providers and ML experts in the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of ECMWF Member States and Cooperating States as well as stakeholders and prospective users of the Digital Twins.

About ECMWF 

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is a world-leader in weather and environmental forecasting. As an international organisation we serve our members and the wider community with global weather predictions and data that is critical for understanding and solving the climate crisis. We function as a 24/7 research and operational centre with a focus on medium and long-range predictions, holding one of the largest meteorological data archives in the world. The success of our activities builds on the talent of our scientists and experts, strong partnerships with 35 Member and Co-operating States and the international community, some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world, and the use of innovative technologies and machine learning across our operations. ECMWF is a multi-site organisation, with a main office in Reading, UK, a data centre/supercomputer in Bologna, Italy, and a large presence in Bonn, Germany. ECMWF has also developed a strong partnership with the European Union and has been entrusted with the implementation and operation of the Destination Earth Initiative and the Climate Change and Atmosphere Monitoring Services of the Copernicus Programme. Other areas of work include High Performance Computing and the development of digital tools that enable ECMWF to extend provision of data and products covering weather, climate, air quality, fire and flood prediction and monitoring.

See   for more info about what we do. 

The Destination Earth (DestinE) initiative

ECMWF is one of the three entities entrusted to implement the DestinE initiative of the European Commission, alongside with ESA and EUMETSAT as partners. DestinE aims to deploy several highly accurate thematic digital replicas of the Earth, called Digital Twins. The Digital Twins will help monitor and predict environmental change and human impact, in order to develop and test scenarios that would support sustainable development and corresponding European policies for the Green Deal.  ECMWF is responsible for the delivery of these digital twins and of the Digital Twin engine, the software infrastructure needed to power them of some of Europe’s largest supercomputers, those of the European HPC Joint Undertaking (EuroHPC).  The second phase of DestinE covers the period June 2024 – May 2026, and future phases are foreseen (subject to funding). Phase 2 will focus on early operations with consolidation, maintenance, and continuous evolution of the DestinE system components developed in the first phase. There will also be an enhanced focus on ML activities, including the deployment of workflows of components of a ML model for the Earth system, optimisation of the Digital Twin Engine to enable efficient model training and simulations, and other activities.

For more information on DestinE, see  and

In this role you will: 

• Develop and adapt, in liaison with other scientists and developers, verification tools and metrics, including some specific to AI-models; ensure inclusion in the verification workflow and portability thereof.
• Perform in-depth evaluation of high-impact surface weather (extreme temperature, strong wind, heavy precipitation) from AI-based forecasts against in-situ observations.
• Perform scale-dependent evaluation of AI-based forecasts against gridded datasets.
• Assess probabilistic forecast skill of the AIFS, run in DestinE for uncertainty quantification, examining both upper-air parameters and surface weather.
• Contribute to workflows for continuous verification of AI-based Earth system modelling within DestinE.
• Contribute to the regular reviews and reporting on AI-based forecast performance, comparison with other (conventional) forecasting systems.

What we're looking for:

• Excellent analytical and problem-solving skills with a proactive, continuous improvement approach.
• Motivation to actively contribute to technical discussions and work with others to identify the best way to proceed. 
• Initiative and ability to work collaboratively with other ECMWF staff and DestinE partners, but also able to work independently.
• Dedication, passion and enthusiasm to succeed both individually and across teams of developers.
• Highly organised with the capacity to work on a diverse range of tasks to tight deadlines.

Your education, skills and experience:

• Advanced university degree (EQF Level 7 or above) or equivalent professional experience or professional qualification in Earth System Science, Physics, Statistics, Applied Mathematics, or a related discipline
• Experience in handling large observational and/or modelling datasets and their statistical analysis.
• Experience in weather or climate model evaluation and/or verification.
• Experience to work with either physical or machine learning models in the domain of weather and climate prediction.
• Strong interpersonal and communication skills.  
• Very good programming and scripting skills.
• Experience in machine learning within the area of weather and climate science would be an advantage.
• Good knowledge about machine learning and in particular deep learning would be an advantage.
• Candidates must be able to work effectively in English.

Other information 

Grade remuneration:  The successful candidates will be recruited at the A2 grade, according to the scales of the Co-ordinated Organisations. The position is assigned to the employment category STF-PS  as defined in the ECMWF Staff Regulations. Full details of salary scales and allowances available on the ECMWF website at . 

Starting date:  As soon as possible

Candidates are expected to relocate to the duty station. As a multi-site organisation, ECMWF has adopted a hybrid organisation model which allows flexibility to staff to mix office working and teleworking, including away from the duty station (within the area of our member states and co-operating states).

Interviews by videoconference (MS Team) are expected to take place shortly after the closing date. 

Who can apply 

Applicants are invited to complete the online application form by clicking on the apply button below. 

At ECMWF, we consider an inclusive environment as key for our success. We are dedicated to ensuring a workplace that embraces diversity and provides equal opportunities for all, without distinction as to race, gender, age, marital status, social status, disability, sexual orientation, religion, personality, ethnicity and culture. We value the benefits derived from a diverse workforce and are committed to having staff that reflect the diversity of the countries that are part of our community, in an environment that nurtures equality and inclusion. 

Applications are invited from nationals from ECMWF Member States and Co-operating States: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Morocco, the Netherlands, Norway, North Macedonia, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Türkiye and the United Kingdom. 

In these exceptional times, we also welcome applications from Ukrainian nationals for this vacancy.  

Applications from nationals from other countries may be considered in exceptional cases.