Scientist - Data-driven extended-range prediction in Destination Earth

Your role 

ECMWF has an exciting opportunity for a Scientist to deliver a step change in the accuracy of our extended-range forecast predictions by harnessing the power of data driven machine learning. 
At ECMWF, you will find a passionate community, collectively aiming to build the best global Earth system models for numerical weather prediction. ECMWF has been the first operational weather centre to publish results of their own global machine learned weather model – the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) – that are continuously updated with the latest predictions on their webpage . Within DestinE, ECMWF will now develop and deploy workflows of machine learned Earth system components of a European foundation model based on existing DestinE traditional simulation and modelling results. One target, combining this expanded machine learning based earth system approach will be to target longer forecast ranges, specifically sub-seasonal predictions.
The successful candidate will develop approaches to improve machine-learning based predictions two to four weeks ahead. This could involve using additional fields or predictors or adapting the training of machine learning based predictions. The machine learning based predictions will be compared to the ECMWF operational extended-range forecasts.
 
The successful candidate will work in the Extended Range Team in the Predictability Section but will interface closely with a group of machine learning scientists who will support the developments from a data-science perspective. This will enable development of the best possible models that exploit the full potential of machine learning and high-performance computing while still being tested and evaluated by domain scientists who check for physical consistency and limits in predictability. The developed tools will be closely integrated into the DestinE workflow and will also be considered for use in operational weather predictions at ECMWF. This effort supports ECMWF’s strategy of producing cutting‐edge science and world-leading weather predictions and monitoring of the Earth system..

This contract is funded by Destination Earth and will collaborate closely with other activities at ECMWF Member States and with our partners at ESA and EUMETSAT.

About the predictability section and the extended range team

The Earth System Predictability Section forms part of ECMWF’s Research Department. The Section explores relevant directions to improve the skill of the ECMWF forecasting systems. This involves both exploring the predictability horizon of the earth system, as well as identifying those elements limiting the actual forecast skill. The aim is to guide future development of the ECMWF Seamless Earth-System forecasting system. Within the Earth System Predictability Section, the extended-range Prediction Team is responsible for the design of the ECMWF extended-range prediction system, which currently covers forecasts up to 46 days ahead. The team conducts predictability research to inform on the representation of sources of sub-seasonal predictability, as well as identifying critical elements to translate predictability into prediction skill. 

About ECMWF 

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is a world-leader in weather and environmental forecasting. As an international organisation we serve our members and the wider community with global weather predictions and data that is critical for understanding and solving the climate crisis. We function as a 24/7 research and operational centre with a focus on medium and long-range predictions, holding one of the largest meteorological data archives in the world. The success of our activities builds on the talent of our scientists and experts, strong partnerships with 35 Member and Co-operating States and the international community, some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world, and the use of innovative technologies and machine learning across our operations. ECMWF is a multi-site organisation, with a main office in Reading, UK, a data centre/supercomputer in Bologna, Italy, and a large presence in Bonn, Germany. 

ECMWF has also developed a strong partnership with the European Union and has been entrusted with the implementation and operation of the Destination Earth Initiative and the Climate Change and Atmosphere Monitoring Services of the Copernicus Programme. Other areas of work include High Performance Computing and the development of digital tools that enable ECMWF to extend provision of data and products covering weather, climate, air quality, fire and flood prediction and monitoring.

See   for more info about what we do. 

The Destination Earth (DestinE) Initiative 

ECMWF is one of the three entities entrusted to implement the Destination Earth (DestinE) initiative of the European Commission, alongside ESA and EUMETSAT as partners. DestinE aims to deploy several highly accurate thematic digital replicas of the Earth, called Digital Twins. The Digital Twins will help monitor and predict environmental change and human impact, in order to develop and test scenarios that would support sustainable development and corresponding European policies for the Green Deal.  ECMWF is responsible for the delivery of these digital twins and of the Digital Twin engine, the software infrastructure needed to power them of some of Europe’s largest supercomputers, those of the European HPC Joint Undertaking (EuroHPC). 

The second phase of DestinE covers the period June 2024 – May 2026, and future phases are foreseen (subject to funding). Phase 2 will focus on early operations with consolidation, maintenance, and continuous evolution of the DestinE system components developed in the first phase. There will also be an enhanced focus on ML activities, including the deployment of workflows of components of a ML model for the Earth system, optimisation of the Digital Twin Engine to enable efficient model training and simulations, and other activities. 

For more information on DestinE, see https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/en/destination-earth-destine and https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/what-we-do/environmental-services/destination-earth 

Your responsibilities 

• Propose, implement and test developments to improve machine learning based predictions two to four weeks ahead
• Propose and prepare new training datasets
• Assess skill of the data-driven extended range predictions and compare with the current extended-range forecasting systems, with focus on extremes (e.g.  winter cold spells over Eurasia)
• Diagnose specific case studies

What we're looking for

• Good team player with initiative and ability to work collaboratively in an interdisciplinary and multi-site environment with domain scientists, machine learning scientists and computing scientists, but also ability to work independently
• Excellent analytical and problem-solving skills with a proactive and constructive approach
• Flexibility, with the ability to adapt to changing priorities
• Ability to maintain effective communication and documentation regarding model and project developments and the support of the research-to-operation process
• Highly organised with the capacity to work on a diverse range of tasks to tight deadlines

Education

• Advanced level degree (EQF Level 7 or above) in Earth System Science, Physics, Applied Mathematics, Computer Science or a related discipline or equivalent experience

Experience, knowledge and skills

• Experience using Python and interaction with large geophysical datasets
• Experience in the use of machine learning, and knowledge of deep learning architectures, preferably in the field on weather and climate
• Experience on diagnostics and verification of probabilistic ensemble forecasts would be an advantage
• Knowledge of dynamical meteorology and predictability across time scales is desirable
• Some experience with communicating scientific results to a general audience and the writing of scientific reports would be beneficial
• Candidates must be able to work effectively in English. Knowledge of one of ECMWF’s other working languages (French or German) would be an advantage

Other information 

Grade remuneration:  The successful candidates will be recruited at Grade A2, according to the scales of the Co-ordinated Organisations and the annual basic salary will be GBP 71,451 (Reading/UK) or EUR 86,824 (Bonn/Germany) NET annual basic salary (ECMWF salaries are exempt of national income tax). In addition to basic salary, ECMWF also offers an attractive package of benefits and entitlements. This position is assigned to the employment category STF-PS  as defined in the ECMWF Staff Regulations. To find out more about working with us and for full details of salary scales and allowances, please visit . 

Starting date:                As soon as possible

Length of contract:     The contract duration is expected to be approximately two years up to 31 May 2026. The DestinE initiative as per the Contribution Agreement is divided into phases, the second of which will last approximately two years from June 2024 to June 2026. There may be the possibility of further contract extensions in the future, depending on requirements and funding availability.

Location:                         This position can be located at either ECMWF's HQ in Reading, UK or its duty station in Bonn, Germany

Remote work:            As a multi-site organisation, ECMWF has adopted a hybrid organisation model which allows flexibility to staff to mix office working and teleworking. We allow for remote work 10 days/month away from the office, including up to 80 days/year away from the duty station country (within the area of our member states and co-operating states).

Interviews by videoconference (MS Teams) are expected to take place during February-March 2024. If you require any special accommodations in order to participate fully in our recruitment process, please let us know. 

To contact the ECMWF Recruitment Team, please email jobs@ecmwf.int.

Who can apply 

Applicants are invited to complete the online application form by clicking on the apply button below. 

At ECMWF, we consider an inclusive environment as key for our success. We are dedicated to ensuring a workplace that embraces diversity and provides equal opportunities for all, without distinction as to race, gender, age, marital status, social status, disability, sexual orientation, religion, personality, ethnicity and culture. We value the benefits derived from a diverse workforce and are committed to having staff that reflect the diversity of the countries that are part of our community, in an environment that nurtures equality and inclusion. 

Applications are invited from nationals from ECMWF Member States and Co-operating States, as well as from all EU Member States. 

ECMWF Member and Co-operating States are: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Morocco, the Netherlands, Norway, North Macedonia, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Türkiye and the United Kingdom. 

In these exceptional times, we also welcome applications from Ukrainian nationals for this vacancy.  

Applications from nationals from other countries may be considered in exceptional cases.